Technology Lifecycle
Technology adoption is the most common phenomenon
driving the evolution of industries along the industry lifecycle. After
expanding new uses of resources they end with exhausting the efficiency
of those processes, producing gains that are first easier and larger
over time then exhaustingly more difficult. Most new technologies follow
a similar technology lifecycle describing the technological maturity
of a product. This is not similar to a product life cycle, but applies
to an entire technology, or a generation of a technology. Technology
lifecycle perception dynamics.
There is usually technology hype at the introduction of any new technology,
but only after some time has passed can it be judged as mere hype or
justified true acclaim. Because of the logistic curve nature of technology
adoption, it is difficult to see in the early stages whether the hype
is excessive.
The two errors commonly
committed in the early stages of a technology's development are fitting
an exponential curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming
eternal exponential growth fitting a linear curve to the first part
of the growth curve, and assuming that take-up of the new technology
is disappointing
Similarly, in the later stages, the opposite mistakes can be made relating
to the possibilities of technology maturity and market saturation.
Technology lifecycle adoption
typically occurs in an S curve, as modeled in diffusion of innovations
theory. This is because customers respond to new products in different
ways.
Diffusion of innovations theory, pioneered by Everett Rogers, posits
that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations
and that the characteristics of a product affect overall adoption.
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